Cạnh tranh chiến lược Mỹ - Trung Quốc về quân sự, dự báo tới năm 2030, tác động và hàm ý chính sách cho Việt Nam
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Cạnh tranh chiến lược, Mỹ - Trung Quốc, quân sự, Việt NamTóm tắt
Căng thẳng giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc gần đây đã leo thang trên hầu hết các lĩnh vực. Chính quyền Donald Trump thúc đẩy cạnh tranh về thương mại, công nghệ, đưa ra chiến lược “Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương tự do và rộng mở”. Tiếp đó, chính quyền kế nhiệm Joe Biden đã thông qua chiến lược An ninh Quốc gia và chiến lược Quốc phòng Mỹ năm 2022, đưa ra nhiều biện pháp nhằm kiềm chế, ngăn chặn sự phát triển, bao vây chiến lược đối Trung Quốc, hạn chế các doanh nghiệp Mỹ làm việc với các đối tác Trung Quốc về kỹ thuật cao. Các điểm nóng địa chính trị áp sát Trung Quốc. Trung Quốc cũng đưa ra Ý tưởng phát triển toàn cầu (GDI) và Ý tưởng an ninh toàn cầu (GSI),… không ngừng hiện đại hóa quân sự. Bài viết1 phân tích cạnh tranh chiến lược giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc về quân sự hiện nay, dự báo tới năm 2030, đồng thời nêu lên những tác động đối với thế giới, khu vực và đối sách của Việt Nam.
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2023-08-20
Tham khảo
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Aljazeera. (2023). Russia-China ties enter ‘new era’ as Xi meets Putin in Moscow. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/21/chinas-xi-says-ties-with-russia-entering-new-era Alexander Gabuev. (2023, February 24). Is Russia Shooting Itself in the Foot by Suspending the New START Treaty?. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89131?
Beyza Binnur Donnez. (2022, June 29). What has NATO includes in its new Strategic Concept?. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/p/subscription/1001
Bộ Chính trị. (2008). Nghị quyết số 28-NQ/TW ngày 22/9/2008 về tiếp tục xây dựng các tỉnh, thành phố trực thuộc Trung ương thành khu vực phòng thủ vững chắc trong tình hình mới.
Bộ Quốc phòng. (2019). Quốc phòng Việt Nam 2019. Nxb. Chính trị quốc gia Sự thật.
Brad Dress. (2023, Feb 2). How the US-Philippines military pact could counter China’s rising threat. The Hill. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3840803-how-the-us-philippines-military-pact-could-counter-chinas-rising-threat/
Brett Samuels. (2022, October 12). White House releases Biden’s national security strategy. The Hill. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3684612-white-house-releases-bidens-national-security-strategy/
Colin Clark and Tim Martin. (2023, Feb 10). Growing signs Australia’s new nuclear sub will be British design. Breaking Defense. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/growing-signs-australias-new-nuclear-sub-will-be-british-design/
Choe Sang-Hun. (2023, Jan 13). In a first, South Korea declares nuclear weapons a policy option. The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/01/13/asia-pacific/south-korea-nuclear-weapons-policy/
CSIS. (2022). 2022 National Defense Strategy: Implications for China and the Indo-Pacific. htpps://www.csis.org/analysis/2022-national-defense-strategy-implications-chian-and-indo-pacific
Daniel Hurst. (2023, Mar 14). Penny Wong hits back at China’s claim Aukus nuclear submarines will fuel an arms race. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/14/penny-wong-hits-back-at-chinas-claim-aukus-nuclear-submarines-will-fuel-an-arms-race
Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille. (2021, October 17). China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile. Financial Times.
Dustin Walker. (2023). America and China: Whose timeline is it anyway?. Breaking Defense. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/america-and-china-whose-timeline-is-it-anyway/
Đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam. (2021). Văn kiện Đại hội đại biểu toàn quốc lần thứ XIII. t.1. Nxb. Chính trị quốc gia Sự thật.
Felix Heiduk. (2022, November 30). Security in the Indo-Pacific. https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/security-in-the-indo-pacific.Doi:10.18449/2022RP11
Gregory B.Poling, Andreyka Natalegawa and Danielle Fallin. (2023, Ferbruary 1). Building a U.S-Japan-Philippines Triad. CISI . https://www.cisi.org/analysis/ building-us-japan-philippines-triad
Gordon Lubold and Nancy A. Youssef. (2021, Nov. 21). Advanced Maneuver in China Hypersonic Missile Test Shows New Military Capability. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/advanced-maneuver-in-china-hypersonic-missile-test-shows-new-military-capability-11637545843
Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda. (2023, January 16). Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2023. The Bulletin. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-01/nuclear-notebook-united-states-nuclear-weapons-2023/
Herve Couraye. (2023, Fevrier16). Passé et futur de la relation nippo-américaine. Revue Conflits. https://www.revueconflits.com-passe-et-futur-de-la-relation-nippo-americaine/
Japantimes.co.jp. (2023). “Quad” ministers vow to address challenges in South and East China seas. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/03/03/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/quad-foreign-ministers/
Justin Katz and Valerie Insinna. (2022, August 11). A bloody mess’ with ‘terrible loss of life’: How a China-US conflict over Taiwan could play out. Breaking Defense. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/a-bloody-mess-with-terrible-loss-of-life-how-a-china-us-conflict-over-taiwan-could-play-out/
Jim Garamone. (2023). DOD Is Focused on China, Defense Official Says. https://www.defense.gov/ News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3294255/dod-is-focused-on-china-defense-official-says/
Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi. (2021, January 12). How America Can Shore up Asian
Order. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-12/how-america-can-shore-asian-order
My.china-embassy.gov.cn. (2023, February 2). Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Malaysia: Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on February 2, 2023. http://my.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/fyrth/202302/t20230202_ 11018861.htm
M Matheswaran. (2021, Aug 4). US-China Strategic Competition in the Asia-Pacific. TRENDS. https://trendsresearch.org/insight/us-china-strategic-competition-in-the-asia-pacific/
Matthew R. Costlow. (2023, Jan 24). Does China want nuclear superiority?. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3821126-does-china-want-nuclear-superiority/
Patricia M. Kim. (2023, February 28). The Limits of the No-Limits Partnership. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/limits-of-a-no-limits-partnership-china-russia
Phan Văn Giang. (2021, April 18). Những nhận thức mới và tư duy mới về quốc phòng Việt Nam cần quán triệt sâu sắc và triển khai thực hiện hiệu quả. Quân đội nhân dân online. https://www.qdnd.vn/tien-toi-dai-hoi-xiii-cua-dang/nghi-quyet-va-cuoc-song/nhung-nhan-thuc-moi-va-tu-duy-moi-ve-quoc-phong-viet-nam-can-quan-triet-sau-sac-va-trien-khai-thuc-hien-hieu-qua-657176
Rodion Ebbighausen. (2022). How China's rise is reshaping Indo-Pacific security orde.
https://www.dw.com/en/how-chinas-rise-is-reshaping-indo-pacific-security-order/a-64165164
Stephen Dziedzic. (2022, July 21). Beijing warns AUKUS submarine project sets a 'dangerous precedent' and threatens non-proliferation. ABC net. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-21/beijing-warns-aukus-nuclear-submarine-nonproliferation-weapons/101257714
The Economic Times.(2023). China plans 7.2% defence spending rise this year, faster than GDP target. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-plans-7-2-defence-spending-rise-this-year-faster-than-gdp-target/articleshow/98421749.cms
The Hill. (2023). Why the US is going full throttle on hypersonic missiles. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3900329-why-the-us-is-going-full-throttle-on-hypersonic-missiles/
U.S Department of Defense. (2022). National-Defense-Strategy. https://www.defense.gov/National-Defense-Strategy/
Valerie Insinna. (2022, November 29). China could obtain 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, Pentagon estimates. Breaking Defense. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11/china-to-obtain-1500-nuclear-warheads-by-2035-pentagon-stimates/
White house.gov. (2021, September 24). Fact Sheet: Quad Leaders’ Summit. https://www.white house.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/fact-sheet-quad-leaders-summit/
