Trend in ASEAN-China Relations in Coming Years

Authors

Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. Email: quanghoan2310@gmail.com

Keywords:

ASEAN, China, relations, trend.

Abstract

Over the past few decades, ASEAN-China relations have achieved significant milestones. This article aims to identify the factors that affect ASEAN-China relations in the political, diplomatic, security, defense, and economic dimensions. The challenge to the development of political and diplomatic relations between ASEAN and China is the imbalance and lack of trust in their relationship. Based on these factors, the article analyzes and predicts the future trend of ASEAN-China relations. The future of ASEAN-China relations will be determined by international and regional factors, the internal situations of ASEAN countries, ASEAN’s motivations for cooperating with China, ASEAN’s centrality, and China’s Southeast Asia policy. It is expected that ASEAN-China relations will continue to develop through bilateral and multilateral mechanisms. ASEAN-China economic relations are forecasted to have significant opportunities to expand. However, the prospects of ASEAN-China relations face significant challenges arising from the internal situations in both ASEAN and China, as well as external economic, political, and security environments.

Classification number

Economics

Downloads

Published

2023-12-22

References

An Châu. (26 November 2021). The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) comes into force from January 1, 2022. https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/thi-truong-nuoc-ngoai/hiep-dinh-doi-tac-kinh-te-toan-dien-khu-vuc-rcep-co-hieu-luc-tu-01-thang-01-nam-2022.html#:~:text=Nh%C6%B0%20v%E1%BA%ADy %2C%20 Hi%E1%BB%87p%20%C4%91%E1%BB%8Bnh%20RCEP,01%20th%C3%A1ng%2001%20n% C4%83m%202022

Arase, D. (2019). Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy outlook. Trends in Southeast Asia, Vol. 12. Singapore:

ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.

ASEAN Secretariat. (2020). Overview of ASEAN-China Dialogue Relations. https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Overview-of-ASEAN-China-Relations-22-Apr-2020-00000002.pdf

Chiang, M. H. (2019). China-ASEAN economic relations after establishment of free trade area. The Pacific Review, 32(3): 267-290.

Đàm Huy Hoàng &Trương Quang Hoàn. (2022). The development in ASEAN-China relations since 2024 up to 2021. Chinese Studies Review, 252(8): 27-40.

Hoàng Thị Tuấn Oanh & Nguyễn Quỳnh Trang. (2021). ASEAN-China relations: 30 years on and beyond.

Communist Review, July 2021: 105-111.

Hun Sen. (2022). Remarks Samdech Techo Hun Sen at the closing ceremony 13 November 2022. https://asean2022.mfaic.gov.kh/files/uploads/ZAKPRU2KYWDY/STPM’s_Remarks_at_the_Closing_Cerem ony_13_Nov_2022_EN.pdf

Hữu Hưng. (14 January 2022). ASEAN is China’s largest trading partner in 2021. Nhân dân. https://nhandan.vn/tin-tuc-the-gioi/asean-la-doi-tac-thuong-mai-lon-nhat-cua-trung-quoc-nam-2021-682361/ Lê Hải Bình. (2021). New points on the world and regional situation in the document of the 13th Party Congress: Some practical analysis. Communist Review. https://tapchicongsan.org.vn/web/guest/chinh-tri-xay-dung-dang/-/2018/822102/nhung-diem-moi-ve-cuc-dien-the-gioi-va-khu-vuc-trong-van-kien-dai-hoi-xiii-cua-dang--mot-so-phan-tich-thuc-tien.aspx

Li, M. (2020). The Belt and Road Initiative: Geo-economics and Indo-Pacific security competition.

International Affairs, 96(1): 169-187.

Li, Y. (December 2021). China and ASEAN have established comprehensive strategic partnership bilateral cooperation has entered a new chapter. https://www.bochk.com/dam/ investment/bo-cecon/SY2021035(en).pdf
Liu, S. (10 February 2019). What will the China-India Relationship look like in 2019? – Analysis. https://www.eurasiareview.com/10022019-what-will-the-china-india-relationship-look-like-in-2019-analysis Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China. (2020). Statistical bulletin of FDI in China 2020. https://fdi.mofcom.gov.cn/resource/pdf/2020/12/09/048b1af24cde4c1995f2245c2a735109.pdf

Nghiêm Tuấn Hùng & Vũ Vân Anh. (2021). Impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on international

relations. Communist Review. https://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/web/guest/tin-binh-luan/-/asset_publisher

/DLIYi5AJyFzY/content/tac-dong-cua-cuoc-cach-mang-cong-nghiep-lan-thu-tu-den-quan-he-quoc-te#

Phan Thị Thu Dung. (2022). Some outstanding achievements of China since the 19th National Congress until

now and China’s situation before the 20th National Congress. Communist Review. https://www.tapchicongsan.org .vn/web/guest/the-gioi-van-de-su-kien/-/2018/826002/mot-so-thanh-tuu-noi-bat-cua-trung-quoc-tu-sau-daihoi -xix-den-nay-va-tinh-hinh-trung-quoc-truoc-them-dai-hoi-xx.aspx

Seah, S., Lin, J. & Martinus, M. (16 November 2022). ASEAN’s season of summitry: More hits or misses? https://fulcrum.sg/aseans-season-of-summitry-more-hits-or-misses/

Trần Thường. (20 October 2022). ASEAN and China want a Code of Conduct in the East Sea soon. Vietnamnet.

https://vietnamnet.vn/asean-va-trung-quoc-muon-som-co-bo-quy-tac-ung-xu-o-bien-dong-2072170.html

Trương Quang Hoàn. (2021a). ASEAN in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Review of World Economic and

Political Issues, 302(6): 41-49.

Trương Quang Hoàn. (2021b). Cambodia-China relations since 2010. Final report for institute-level research. Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.

World Bank. (2018). Global economic prospects: Broad-based upturn, but for how long. The World Bank Group. Wu, L. (2019). The challenge to ASEAN centrality under Indo-Pacific Strategy. In Zhu, C. (Eds.), Annual report on the development of the Indian Ocean region: 239-260. Springer. Singapore.