Evaluation of CPTTP and EVFTA on Vietnam
Keywords:
Trade flow, gravity model, CPTPP, EVFTA, Vietnam.Abstract
This paper evaluates the effects of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Vietnam’s trade flow. The study employed a gravity model with two panel datasets. The first one is for the EVFTA and consists of trade activity between Vietnam and 27 European countries over a period of 20 years, from 2000 to 2020. The second dataset consists of trade between Vietnam and seven partner members of the CPTPP, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, and Peru, during the same period. The results show that the EVFTA has a higher positive impact than the CPTPP agreement on Vietnam’s total trade flow. In brief, reducing tariffs could increase the trade flow between Vietnam and other members of the two free trade agreements, and the effect of tariffs on Vietnam’s trade flow in the EVFTA is higher than that in the CPTPP. The trade flow is also driven by population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rates, trade openness, distance, and oil price. Based on the study’s results, the author identifies some policy implications for Vietnam to take advantage of the EVFTA and the CPTPP.
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